Flood frequency analysis using historical data: Accounting for random and systematic errors [Analyse fréquentielle des débits de crues avec des données historiques en prenant en compte les erreurs aléatoires et systématiques]
Neppel L.,Montpellier University |
Renard B.,IRSTEA |
Lang M.,IRSTEA |
Ayral P.,Ecole des Mines dAles |
And 6 more authors.
Hydrological Sciences Journal
Flood frequency analysis based on a set of systematic data and a set of historical floods is applied to several Mediterranean catchments. After identification and collection of data on historical floods, several hydraulic models were constructed to account for geomorphological changes. Recent and historical rating curves were constructed and applied to reconstruct flood discharge series, together with their uncertainty. This uncertainty stems from two types of error: (a) random errors related to the water-level readings; and (b) systematic errors related to over- or under-estimation of the rating curve. A Bayesian frequency analysis is performed to take both sources of uncertainty into account. It is shown that the uncertainty affecting discharges should be carefully evaluated and taken into account in the flood frequency analysis, as it can increase the quantiles confidence interval. The quantiles are found to be consistent with those obtained with empirical methods, for two out of four of the catchments. © 2010 IAHS Press. Source
Significant french flood events from the 2011 preliminary flood risk assessment of the European flood directive [Les inondations remarquables en France: premiers éléments issus de l'enquête EPRI 2011]
Lang M.,IRSTEA |
Coeur D.,Acthys Diffusion |
Bard A.,Acthys Diffusion |
Bacq B.,Acthys Diffusion |
And 7 more authors.
An inventory of about 2000 French flood events has been achieved in 2011, in the framework of the Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment of the European Flood Directive. In collaboration with local authorities, a set of about 300 significant past floods has been documented with a short presentation (1 to 2 pages) of the hydro-meteorological conditions and the adverse consequences. The paper presents the methodological framework for data collection and significant flood selection. Then ten extreme flood events are presented: 1910, 1930, 1940, 1947-48, 1959, 1980, 1999, 2000-01, 2001 and 2010. Some perspectives are addressed to improve the knowledge of past floods. © 2013 Société Hydrotechnique de France. Source